图书介绍

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图书目录

1 Psychology Is Alive and Well（and Doing Fine Among the Sciences）1

The Freud Problem1

The Diversity of Modern Psychology2

Implications of Diversity3

Unity in Science6

What，Then，Is Science？8

Systematic Empiricism9

Publicly Verifiable Knowledge：Replication and Peer Review10

Empirically Solvable Problems：ScientistsSearch for Testable Theories12

Psychology and Folk Wisdom：The Problem with "Common Sense"13

Psychology as a Young Science16

Summary18

2 Falsifiability：How to Foil Little Green Men in the Head19

Theories and the Falsifiability Criterion20

The Theory of Knocking Rhythms22

Freud and Falsifiability23

The Little Green Men25

Not All Confirmations Are Equal26

Falsifiability and Folk Wisdom27

The Freedom to Admit a Mistake28

Thoughts Are Cheap30

Errors in Science：Getting Closer to the Truth31

Summary34

3 Operationism and Essentialism："But，Doctor，What Does It Really Mean？"35

Why Scientists Are Not Essentialists35

Essentialists Like to Argue About the Meaning of Words36

Operationists Link Concepts to Observable Events37

Reliability and Validity38

Direct and Indirect Operational Definitions40

Scientific Concepts Evolve40

Operational Definitions in Psychology42

Operationism as a Humanizing Force45

Essentialist Questions and the Misunderstanding of Psychology47

Operationism and the Phrasing of Psychological Questions48

Summary51

4 Testimonials and Case Study Evidence：Plebo Effects and the Amazing Randi53

The Ple ofthe Case Study54

Why TestimonialsAre Worthless：Plebo Effects56

The "Vividness"Problem59

The Overwhelming Impt of the Single Case63

The Amazing Randi：Fighting Fire with Fire65

Testimonials Open the Door to Pseudoscience67

Summary71

5 Correlation and Causation：Birth Control by the Toaster Method73

The Third-Variable Problem：Goldberger and Pellagra74

Why Goldbergers Evidence Was Better75

The Directionality Problem78

Selection Bias80

Summary83

6 Getting Things Under Control：The Case of Clever Hans85

Snow and Cholera86

Comparison，Control，and Manipulation87

Random Assignment in Conjunction with Manipulation Defines the True Experiment88

The Importance of Control Groups91

The Case of Clever Hans，the Wonder Horse94

Clever Hans in the 1990s96

Prying Variables Apart：Special Conditions99

Intuitive Physics101

Intuitive Psychology103

Summary104

7 "But Its Not Real Life！"：The"Artificiality"Criticism and Psycho logy105

Why Natural Isnt Always Necessary105

The"Random Sample"Confusion107

The Random Assignment Versus Random Sample Distinction107

Theory-Driven Research Versus Direct Applications108

Applications of Psychological Theory113

The"College Sophomore"Problem115

The Real-Life and College Sophomore Problems in Perspective119

Summary120

8 Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome：The Importance of Converging Evidence121

The Connectivity Principle122

A Consumers Rule：Beware of Violations of Connectivity123

The "Great-Leap"Model Versus the Gradual-Synthesis Model125

Converging Evidence：Progress Despite Flaws126

Converging Evidence in Psychology129

Scientific Consensus133

Methods and the Convergence Principle135

The Progression to More Powerful Methods136

A Counsel Against Despair139

Summary142

9 The Misguided Searchfor the"Magic Bullet"：The Issue ofMultiple Causation145

The Concept ofIntertion146

The Temptation of the Single-Cause Explanation149

Summary152

10 The AchillesHeel ofHuman Cognition：Probabilistic Reasoning153

"Person-Who"Statistics155

Probabilistic Reasoning and the Misunderstanding of Psychology156

Psychological Research on Probabilistic Reasoning158

Insufficient Use of Probabilistic Information159

Failure to Use Sample Size Information161

The Gamblers Fally162

A Further Word About Statistics and Probability164

Summary166

11 The Role of Chance in Psychology167

The Tendency to Try to Explain Chance Events167

Explaining Chance：Illusory Correlation and the Illusion of Control170

Chance and Psychology172

Coincidence173

Personal Coincidences176

Aepting Error in Order to Rce Error：Clinical versus Actuarial Prediction177

Summary184

12 The Rodney Dangerfield of the Sciences185

Psychologys Image Problem185

Psychology and ParaPsychology186

The Self-Help Literature188

Recipe Knowledge190

Psychology and Other Disciplines192

Our Own Worst Enemies194

Isnt Everyone a Psychologist？Implicit Theories of Behavior200

The Source of Resistance to Scientific Psychology201

The Final Word206

References207

Name Index231

Subject Index238